Understanding Class Drops in Handicap Horse Racing and Finding Good Bets

Claims racing is one of the best places to find good horse racing bets, but also one of the most confusing types of handicap racing. One big problem is that there are horses that go up and down the class scale and the handicapper often doesn’t know why a horse goes up or down. For example, in its first race after being claimed, a horse often moves up a notch in class. The big question, of course, is did the new trainer improve the horse, or is it a conditioning race?

Trainer stats often give an indication. If he or she is known for winning first on the claim, then it may be that the racer has improved and is able to compete at that higher level. On the other hand, it may just be a conditioning run. One thing to look for is a horse that has been claimed and won before. If another coach managed to win the first time at a higher level, then this coach can do the same.

On the other hand, if the horse is an older horse and has never competed successfully at that level before, the new conditioner may be expecting too much of the horse. In the reclamation ranks, once a horse has run long enough, he has generally shown what he is capable of and finds his level of talent. Younger horses, four years old or younger to be specific, can often improve and find a new level, but older, experienced riders have generally found their niche.

A popular move that many trainers now use is to claim a horse and execute it at a lower level. Like most moves in claim lines, this is a financial decision. First of all, a fall after a claim is often considered a bad sign and means that the horse has a problem. That prevents many others from claiming the horse even at the lower level.

Thus, the new trainer can drop the horse, win the race, and collect the purse, and still have the runner for another try. If he or she wins again at the same level and the horse is claimed, the new trainer has still cashed two checks and recovered most of the original price claimed. It is often a profitable move that you rarely saw many years ago.

Another move to protect the horse, of course, is to have some friends file a claim on the horse. That way, even if someone else tries to claim it, the owner has a very good chance of winning the resulting milkshake, as it’s called, and keeping the horse. One of his friends claims it and sells it back and keeps the broker and cashes the winning check.

So don’t fall into the trap of thinking a demotion is a bad sign after claiming unless you see physical evidence of a problem with the horse.

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