How to find false favorites and eliminate them is to understand that this depends on your level of recognition of the quality of the horse.(s) in question. There are false favorites and false long shots. A false favorite is when the player believes that the public has got it wrong and that the horse has a much lower chance of winning than the public feels. A false long shot is when the player believes the public has misjudged and the horse(s) you have a much better chance of reaching a more favorable position.

There are several ways to determine to some extent whether a favorite is fake. The morning line favorite (the horse(s) with the lowest odds) wins on average 32% of the time and the favorite board wins on average 33% of the time. This is a simple statistical average. This means that the tote board favorite and the morning line favorite are false on average 67% and 68% of the time, respectively. Whenever you make a handicap, you must look for the true favorite and remove the false favorite. Remember: There are several or more reasons why a favorite from the morning line and/or a tote board cannot win.

So the percentage written above are generalities but statistically true. So what are some of the ways you can use to find false favorites? Or how to find false favorites and remove them. Start: (1) 67%-68% of tote board and morning line favorites are fake. (two) Any horse that actually wins the race is, in fact, the true favorite. From a reality perspective. Why? Because that is the horse that in fact won. Reality has the last word. (so to speak). It doesn’t matter what the odds are, the morning line, the tote board, or the player’s beliefs. (3) Bet on the morning line favorite and tote to lose and you’ll be right 67%-68% of the time.

Also: (4) Does the horse carry much more weight than the last race? if so, it may be false. (5) Does the horse have a lady jockey or a jockey apprentice? (6) Did the horse do well or badly on its last trip? (travel disability) and because? (7) Horse boat in his last race. HAS boat it’s when a horse bred very well in one race but was mediocre in the next. (8) Look for favorites who are not in optimal physical condition. (9) Favorite hasn’t been published in 35 days or more.

Also: (10) The percentage of jockey/coach combination is low. (eleven) He has inconsistent form in his most recent three races. (12) look for closers (further back but can still win) who can beat today’s favorite. (13) He won in the last 5-10 days, but had no previous wins before that. The advanced handicap deals with false favourites, so these are some points and more will be given in part 2, but this is a small sample of how to find false favorites and remove them.