When trying to make a living betting on horses, or just trying to have a good day once in a while, the issue of predictability comes up. The reason for this is that in addition to getting good odds on everything you bet, you also need to win often enough to maintain your bankroll. Predictability and fair odds go hand in hand when it comes to making money picking winners.

Some people think that damsel races are the least predictable because the horses are young and many have little or no racing experience. The stats tell a different story, at least the winning percentage of the favorites. The winning percentage for the favorites, as well as the average odds for all winners, is a good indicator of how predictable or faithful the races are at any given track.

Taking a look at a circuit like Florida, for example, you have the highest bags and big-name trainers at a big track like Gulfstream and smaller bags and lesser-known trainers at a track like Tampa Bay. Both tracks are good tracks and you can enjoy racing on either of them. Some people say that Gulfstream is a better place to make money betting on horses, while others like Tampa Bay.

The purses are smaller in Tampa Bay and therefore the quality of the horses is lower, but the horses in the races at Tampa Bay are as close as the horses at Gulfstream Park. In other words, the races are just as contentious and fun to be handicapped as they are to watch.

However, you will find more opportunities to win in Tampa Bay that may or may not appeal to you. The reason for this is that the smaller the bags and therefore the lower the quality of the horses, the more likely a move by the trainer will improve the horse. I know a lot of people will disagree with me, but that’s my opinion and I’ve been playing both tracks for years.

The best trainers who train at Gulfstream source some of the best horses in the country. Those horses are fitter and in better shape than the horses in Tampa Bay. If you have a horse that can race in the $50,000 claim ranges, you don’t race it at Tampa Bay. Your horse is simply better than those horses and therefore you ride it at Gulfstream for higher prizes. When horses have fewer flaws and more skill, in my opinion, they are more predictable.

Now before you Tampa Bay fans get the lynch mob ready to hang this old horse player, let me tell you that his track is a good track and the racing is contentious. From a downside point of view, if you are looking for good profits and are smart enough to watch the trainer’s moves, you may find those TB runs very profitable.

When it comes to horse racing handicap, predictability and profitability are not always the same thing. You need to be able to predict outcomes better than the crowd. A lot of people who try to race handicappers in TB expect those horses to be as true to form as GP horses. There are very good trainers in TB who are experts at figuring out what is going on with a horse and making adjustments to equipment and training and getting a win at a good price.

So what I’m saying is that higher purses and higher quality horses make for more predictable races, but predictability and profitability are not always the same thing when betting on horses. If you’re good enough to understand the trainers and how they succeed at what they do, you may find a smaller track like Tampa Bay more to your liking. On the other hand, if you need more predictability and are willing to sacrifice and accept lower odds on your winners, Gulfstream Park also has good racing.